Has UNT backed itself into a corner with numbers in football?
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February 2010
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UNT signed what might be its largest crop of junior college transfers in better than a decade this week. It's a smart move heading into a win-at-all-costs season, but one has to wonder at this point if UNT hasn't backed itself into a bit of a corner when it comes to the future of this team. Hear me out. UNT lost a small senior class last season, but will have a senior-heavy class next season full of key starters: Ira Smith, Esteban Santiago, Craig Robertson, AJ Penson, Mike Outlaw, Kelvin Jackson, Jamaal Jackson, Victor Gill and Shavod Atkinson to name a few. Those guys will give UNT a real shot to post a breakout season in 2010, but if it doesn't work out, UNT will have the 10 junior college transfers it signed this year heading into their senior seasons the following season, when John Shorter, BJ Lewis, JJ Johnson, Royce Hill, Lance Dunbar, DaWaylon Cook and Branon Akpunku will also be seniors. It's a long way off and a lot can unfold the next couple of years, but if you look at the talent on the team and the way UNT went heavy on JUCO players this year, this team really has put a whole lot of eggs in the basket for next season. There's a good chance UNT will be a lot better in 2010, but if it isn't, this team will essentially have a one year buffer with what will be a big junior class next season that will be a senior class the following year. UNT will be in full rebuilding mode after that. That's why it is so important for UNT to turn it around in Todd Dodge's ultimatum year. If Dodge doesn't this team is going, UNT will be looking at fielding a team with a whole lot of seniors in the first season under a new head coach and then rebuilding. That task would be a tough one with a 2010 recruiting class that only has a dozen or so high school prospects who will be left in three years. This could all work out in great fashion for UNT with a turnaround season this year. UNT has a lot of talent coming back. Some of the writers I talk to in the league think UNT could be a surprise team next season. The worst-case scenario is still in play, though, and that would involve a bad season, a coaching change that would leave a new coach trying to win with a senior-heavy team that would lose a ton of key players heading into year two, a prospect that would make getting this team pointed in the right direction tough. That's exactly what happened in women's basketball. Like I said, it's the worst-case scenario, but UNT has already had five straight tough years. If nothing changes next year, this team could be looking at a rough road to avoid seeing its run of tough years reach the decade mark.
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as george allen said, "the future is now." in addition, we would probably be better off building a program based upon jucos, like troy, than with "the best of the rest" high school grads.
The men's basketball team has a similar dilemma on the horizon as well.
Nothing has worked so far by Dodge doing it the normal way with mostly high school recruits so why not try it the other way with experienced juco players? He only has his career here to lose if it doesn't work out.
No, I don't think so. Even if the Canales hire backfires badly and the offense is overly complex and executes poorly leading to a sub 500 season and the dismissal of Dodge, what does the new coach inherit?
most of an experienced 3 Star defense
DE Bellazine Soph
MLB Orr Soph
OLB Johnson Sr.
OLB Graham Sr.
CB Wood Sr.
CB Ford Sr.
S Hughes Sr.
S Downing Sr.
Plus guys who have already shown some ability like
DE KC Obi Jr.
DE Brandon Apunku Sr.
DT Tevinn Cantly Jr.
S Darrien Williams Sr.
OLB John Shorter Sr.
OLB Jeremy Phillips Sr.
CB Royce Hill Sr.
S DaWaylon Cook Sr.
guys who look good in practice and are likely to grow into starters
DT Kyle White Jr.
DT Joe Hawthorne Sr.
and unknowns like
DE Michael Miller Sr.
DE John Weber Sr.
MLB Daniel Prior Jr.
S Will Wright Soph.
Offensively the line might be a little weak, but there is so much OL depth here that a guy like the old S. Miss Coach would be able to turn it into a good unit in short order with the skilled talent.
C JJ Johnson Sr.
G Coleman Feeley Sr.
T Matt Tomlinson Sr.
WR B.J. Lewis Sr.
WR Darius Carey Jr.
RB Lance Dunbar Sr.
QB Riley Dodge Jr.
Plus guys who have already shown some ability like
Derek Thompson Jr.
plus promising unknowns like
TE Jamize Olawale Sr.
TE Austin Fitzpatrick Jr.
WR Chritopher Bynes Sr.
and others.
The team the new coach would be inheriting would be loaded. He'd have anew stadium to recruit with. It would be a very good job with good short and long term potential.
I was stunned at the quality of the recruiting class. I fully believe we had no choice. And, when this year's team turns the corner, there is no telling how GRAND the following year's recruits will be. With a good year, and the new stadium, and a new outlook, I believe the Staff will be signing big time high school classes each year. I really believe this year will turn the corner!
Another interesting note....despite SMU's wonderful season (and granted they were young), they had no in-roads in DFW players. Coach Jones is a wonderful coach and I'm sure will continue to do good things...but, I'm not sure DFW will pay note. Will be interesting to watch. I grew up as a SMU fan and still like the Ponies, but, I just don't know if they can break the Texas and A&M fandom in the Metroplex.
UNT however just needs to win. Crowds will return! The new stadium will bring new magic! Next season will be THE turnaround.
Until play begins, I want to congratulate the Staff for an outstanding recruiting season.
P.S. Blake Dunham will become the next Chris Hurd before he is thru!